Review of the Lecture „The Western Balkans Torn Between the European Union and the Influence of Russia and China“ with Dr. Bernd Christoph Ströhm at the Diplomatic Academy (21.10.2024)

Photos by Wolfgang Geissler and Wolfgang Buchta

By Wolfgang Geissler

Our Vice President, Ambassador Dr. Alexander Christiani, began by offering an apology, noting that he was suffering from a rather bad cold and that the moderation might be “a bit less ambitious.” However, there was no noticeable impact on the usual quality of the moderation during the lecture that followed.

He then welcomed the audience and introduced Dr. Bernd Christoph Ströhm, highlighting his expertise in geopolitics, particularly regarding Russia and the Western Balkans. He pointed out Serbia’s evolving relationship with Russia, given recent interactions, and emphasized the geopolitical significance of the region. Dr. Christiani also noted the European Union’s ongoing challenges in integrating the Western Balkans and the growing influence of Russia and China, whose reach, like an octopus, seems to be tightening its grip on the region.

Dr. Bernd Christoph Ströhm’s lecture focused on the geopolitical and geo-economic influence of Russia and China in the Western Balkans, particularly in Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.
To assist the reader, I have posted the PowerPoint presentation in my photo series.

  1. Western Balkans and EU Enlargement:
  • The European Union has maintained a long-standing commitment to integrating the Western Balkans. However, progress has slowed since 2013 due to enlargement fatigue, political instability, and unresolved regional issues.
  • Russia and China have taken advantage of this slowdown, using different methods to increase their influence in the region.
  1. Russian Influence:
  • Russia’s approach is largely geopolitical, leveraging historical and cultural ties, especially with Serbia. Russia supports Serbia’s stance on Kosovo, blocking its international recognition, and further fuels ethnic divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • Russia provides energy to Serbia at favourable prices, which gives it leverage. However, Russia’s economic influence is diminishing, with only a small percentage of imports and exports tied to the country.
  1. Chinese Influence:
  • China’s strategy is predominantly geo-economic, focusing on investments and infrastructure projects through the Belt and Road Initiative. Serbia is a key target, receiving billions of dollars in investments for infrastructure, mining, and IT sectors.
  • Chinese investments have quadrupled in recent years, particularly in Serbia, where China is the largest foreign investor in certain sectors. China’s involvement is seen as a way to create a bridge to the European Union, bypassing stricter EU investment rules.
  1. The European Union’s Role:
  • The EU remains the region’s largest trading partner, but its slow pace of investment and support has allowed China and Russia to increase their influence. Dr. Ströhm emphasized that the EU must act more decisively by investing in public goods, education, and energy security to maintain its presence in the region.
  1. Bosnia and Herzegovina:
  • Bosnia remains deeply divided along ethnic lines, with Russia exploiting these divisions through its support for the Serb entity, Republika Srpska. The country’s constitutional framework, established by the Dayton Agreement, has created a stalemate that hinders effective governance.
  1. Montenegro’s Debt Crisis:
  • Montenegro’s public debt crisis was exacerbated by loans from China for a highway project, which led to political instability and long-term financial strain. Eventually, the EU had to step in to provide support.

Q&A Session: The Q&A session following the talk addressed various issues, including Austria’s role as an investor in the Western Balkans, the EU’s lack of visibility compared to China, and the challenges of integrating the region into the EU. Questions were raised about the political and economic strategies needed to counter Russian and Chinese influence and whether the EU can offer a compelling alternative.

Key Takeaways:

  • Both Russia and China are employing different strategies—geopolitical and geo-economic—to exert their influence in the Western Balkans.
  • The EU remains the dominant economic partner but must increase its visibility and investments to counter the influence of these external powers.
  • Serbia stands at the centre of these geopolitical tensions, balancing its relationships with Russia, China, and the EU.
  • Regional stability depends on resolving long-standing ethnic conflicts and effectively managing foreign influence.

The discussion continued into the atrium, where we were treated to delicious “Diplomatic Academy” wine and tasty canapés. The lively atmosphere lasted well past 11 pm, with Dr. Ströhm being one of the last to leave—a clear sign of a successful and engaging evening.

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